2023 has started off as a "La Niña" year.
The name refers to the strength of the trade winds moving from Central America towards Asia. In normal, or "ENSO-Neutral" years, these winds blow some of the water sitting toward the top of the Pacific Ocean and gradually carry it towards Asia.
In La Niña years, these trade winds intensify and cause more of the sun-warmed water to move around. This allows for deeper, colder water to surface.
It also leads to changes in the forecast for wintertime and spring.
A typical La Niña winter has a small amount of warm air converging with an abundance of cold air in the continental northwestern U.S. This allows for predominantly colder-than-average wintertime temperatures for that region.
The West Coast and Great Lakes regions will see more rain during a La Niña winter. Here in the Southeast, our winters will be drier and warmer than average.
The current La Niña phase of the oscillation cycle is weakening. This means that during the next few months, the pattern will become ENSO-Neutral again, then likely turn to El Niño.
This change typically occurs every two to seven years. Once El Niño arrives, we'll dive into that topic.Â
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